Nepal’s Department of Tourism has issued permits for 18 Manaslu teams this autumn, covering 219 foreign climbers. That is a crowd for an 8,163 m peak, and the reason for it sits across the border in Tibet.
The China-Tibet Mountaineering Association confirmed that both Cho Oyu and Shishapangma will stay closed this year. Those are the two most popular 8,000ers on the Tibetan side, and Cho Oyu in particular is the standard stepping stone for climbers building toward Everest. With both shut, the teams that would have gone there needed somewhere else.
Manaslu is where they went. US-based Madison Mountaineering is among the operators that switched.
Manaslu Autumn 2026: Photo by Siddhartha Sen
Why Manaslu absorbs the overflow
Manaslu has become the default autumn 8,000er for reasons that have little to do with the mountain itself.
It is in Nepal, so it avoids the permit uncertainty that has repeatedly closed the Tibetan peaks. It runs in autumn, when Everest and most Nepali 8,000ers are out of season. And it has a reputation, deserved or not, as the most approachable of the fourteen.
That last point carries a caveat worth stating. Manaslu’s summit ridge has a history of teams stopping at a forepeak rather than the true summit, and the mountain has a serious avalanche record. Approachable does not mean safe.
Rope fixing and the summit window
The Expedition Operators Association of Nepal deployed a Sherpa team to fix ropes on Manaslu in late August. EOA estimates suggested the route could be complete to the summit by the third week of September.
If that holds, summit pushes cluster in the last week of September and the first days of October, which is the normal pattern. With 219 permitted foreign climbers plus their Sherpa teams, expect congestion at the fixed sections.
Manaslu was not affected by the flood
The 26 August glacial outburst flood devastated the Rasuwa corridor and the Bhote Koshi and Trishuli river systems. Manaslu sits in a different watershed entirely and expedition logistics have continued.
Manaslu Autumn 2026: Photo by Sanjay Prakash
Seven Summit Treks, one of the largest operators in the country, has told clients that its Manaslu, Dhaulagiri and eastern Nepal programmes remain on schedule for autumn.
Trekkers on the Manaslu Circuit, as opposed to climbers, should still confirm road access from Kathmandu to Soti Khola or Machha Khola before departure, since the flood damaged highways in central Nepal.
What this means if you are trekking, not climbing
The Manaslu Circuit and the Manaslu expedition share the lower approach. A busy climbing season means more traffic on the trail to Samagaun, more pressure on teahouses, and higher demand for the restricted-area permits the route requires.
If you are walking the circuit this autumn, book accommodation in Samagaun and Samdo further ahead than you normally would. Late September and early October will be the tightest.
The circuit remains a restricted area, so you need a licensed guide and a minimum group size regardless of the rule changes elsewhere in Nepal.
The bigger pattern
Cho Oyu and Shishapangma have now been unpredictable for several seasons. Each closure pushes demand onto Nepal, and Manaslu takes most of it. For Nepali operators, that is revenue arriving in a season that badly needs it. For the mountain, it means an autumn crowd that its infrastructure was not built for.
